Grorud Matchbane · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Grorud vs Ull/Kisa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Grorud and 0.77 for Ull/Kisa, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Grorud the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Grorud win
86.7% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grorud home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ull/Kisa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grorud to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 9% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Grorud and 0.77 for Ull/Kisa, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.9%
- 4–08.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–17.7%
- 4–16.7%
Recent form
Grorud
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lørenskog · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levanger · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Moss · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kjelsås · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-0 (W)
Ull/Kisa
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Junkeren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levanger · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 54 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 50 |
| 3 | Levanger | 23 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 46 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 46 |
| 5 | Grorud | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 46 |
| 6 | Tromsdalen Uil | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 35 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Stjørdals-Blink | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Follo | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -23 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -44 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grorud win, at 86.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.