Grosseto vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Grosseto and 1.15 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Grosseto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Grosseto win

48.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grosseto home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grosseto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Grosseto and 1.15 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Grosseto win48%

Draw25%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–010.1%
2–19.5%
2–08.2%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Grosseto

2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pineto · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Perugia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 2-2 (D)

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Latina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spezia	11	9	2	0	14	29
2	Ravenna	11	7	2	2	14	23
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	8	19
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	2	18
5	Reggiana	10	5	2	3	5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	4	16
7	Livorno	11	4	4	3	0	16
8	Perugia	11	5	1	5	-2	16
9	Vado	11	4	3	4	1	15
10	Torres	10	4	3	3	-1	15
11	Campobasso FC	11	4	3	4	-4	15
12	Latina	11	3	5	3	0	14
13	Pineto	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Atalanta II	10	4	0	6	-4	12
15	Forli	10	2	5	3	0	11
16	Sambenedettese	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Pianese	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	-11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	1	1	8	-14	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Grosseto win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.