Monoflo Arena Micheldorf · Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Grün Weiß Micheldorf vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Grün Weiß Micheldorf and 2.30 for Vortuna Bad Leonfelden, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Vortuna Bad Leonfelden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grün Weiß Micheldorf home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vortuna Bad Leonfelden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 19% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Grün Weiß Micheldorf and 2.30 for Vortuna Bad Leonfelden, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–37.5%
Recent form
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
- 2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pregarten · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oedt · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Perg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Martin i.M. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Mondsee · 2-2 (D)
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
- 2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Weißkirchen / Allhaming · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Vöcklamarkt · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bad Ischl · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pregarten · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oedt · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Landesliga - Oberosterreich table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 59 |
| 2 | Vortuna Bad Leonfelden | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 54 |
| 3 | Bad Schallerbach | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 50 |
| 4 | Union Perg | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 49 |
| 5 | Weißkirchen / Allhaming | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Friedburg / Pöndorf | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 44 |
| 7 | Union Edelweiß | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 44 |
| 8 | Mondsee | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 42 |
| 9 | Ostermiething | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Union Vöcklamarkt | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 | St. Martin i.M. | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 38 |
| 12 | Oedt | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 32 |
| 13 | Bad Ischl | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | -34 | 30 |
| 14 | Pregarten | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -21 | 21 |
| 15 | Gschwandt | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -43 | 20 |
| 16 | Grün Weiß Micheldorf | 28 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -30 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vortuna Bad Leonfelden win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.