Guabirá vs Aurora Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Guabirá and 1.75 for Aurora, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Aurora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guabirá home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aurora away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aurora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Guabirá and 1.75 for Aurora, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guabirá win35%

Draw23%

Aurora win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–28.6%
2–17.8%
2–26.9%
0–16.2%

Recent form

Guabirá

2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Oriente Petrolero · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)

Aurora

2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bolívar	22	16	3	3	34	51
2	Always Ready	22	14	6	2	35	48
3	The Strongest	22	13	6	3	17	45
4	Real Potosí	22	10	8	4	15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	10	4	8	10	34
6	Aurora	22	7	10	5	3	31
7	Guabirá	22	8	6	8	-10	30
8	Blooming	22	6	10	6	7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	22	8	4	10	1	28
10	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	-15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	7	5	10	-10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	6	3	13	-14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	6	3	13	-20	21
14	ABB	22	6	2	14	-16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	-23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	3	8	11	-14	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.