Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Guabirá and 1.78 for Oriente Petrolero, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Oriente Petrolero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guabirá home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oriente Petrolero away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriente Petrolero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Guabirá and 1.78 for Oriente Petrolero, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guabirá win37%

Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.4%
1–28.4%
2–17.9%
2–27.0%
0–15.6%

Recent form

Guabirá

2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Oriente Petrolero · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)

Oriente Petrolero

2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Always Ready	23	15	6	2	39	51
2	Bolívar	22	16	3	3	34	51
3	The Strongest	23	13	6	4	16	45
4	Real Potosí	23	10	8	5	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	23	11	4	8	11	37
6	Aurora	23	8	10	5	4	34
7	Guabirá	22	8	6	8	-10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	8	5	10	-8	29
9	Blooming	23	6	10	7	6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	8	4	10	1	28
11	Real Oruro	23	8	3	12	-19	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	7	3	13	-19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	6	3	13	-14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	4	8	11	-13	20
15	ABB	23	6	2	15	-18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	23	5	5	13	-24	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.