Guabirá vs Real Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Guabirá and 0.98 for Real Potosí, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Guabirá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guabirá win

46.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guabirá home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Potosí away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Guabirá win46%

Draw27%

Real Potosí win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.1%
1–112.8%
0–09.5%
0–19.3%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Guabirá

2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Oriente Petrolero · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)

Real Potosí

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-22T22:00:00.000Z · Guabirá 0-3 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2021-12-05T19:00:00.000Z · Guabirá 3-1 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2021-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · Guabirá 3-0 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2020-12-31T19:00:00.000Z · Guabirá 4-0 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2020-11-27T21:30:00.000Z · Guabirá 1-0 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2019-11-30T19:00:00.000Z · Guabirá 0-1 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2019-08-03T23:30:00.000Z · Guabirá 0-1 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2019-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · Guabirá 2-1 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2019-01-19T21:15:00.000Z · Guabirá 1-3 Real Potosí (Primera División)
2018-11-29T00:30:00.000Z · Guabirá 2-2 Real Potosí (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bolívar	22	16	3	3	34	51
2	Always Ready	22	14	6	2	35	48
3	The Strongest	22	13	6	3	17	45
4	Real Potosí	23	10	8	5	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	10	4	8	10	34
6	Aurora	22	7	10	5	3	31
7	Guabirá	22	8	6	8	-10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	8	5	10	-8	29
9	Blooming	23	6	10	7	6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	8	4	10	1	28
11	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	-15	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	7	3	13	-19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	6	3	13	-14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	4	8	11	-13	20
15	ABB	23	6	2	15	-18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	-23	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guabirá win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.