Guabirá vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Guabirá and 1.61 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Guabirá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guabirá win

45.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guabirá home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario de Vinto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guabirá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Guabirá and 1.61 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guabirá win46%

Draw22%

Universitario de Vinto win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.0%
2–18.7%
1–27.2%
2–27.0%
3–15.6%

Recent form

Guabirá

2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Oriente Petrolero · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)

Universitario de Vinto

2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa de la División Profesional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente Petrolero	9	6	1	2	9	19
2	Bolívar	9	5	3	1	8	18
3	Aurora	9	5	3	1	3	18
4	Nacional Potosí	9	5	2	2	16	17
5	Real Potosí	9	5	2	2	4	17
6	Oriente Petrolero	9	5	1	3	4	16
7	The Strongest	8	4	2	2	3	14
8	Guabirá	8	4	0	4	-4	12
9	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	8	3	1	4	3	10
10	Always Ready	8	3	1	4	-8	10
11	Real Tomayapo	8	3	1	4	-10	10
12	Universitario de Vinto	8	2	1	5	-4	7
13	Real Oruro	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	ABB	8	2	0	6	-4	6
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	8	2	0	6	-6	6
16	Blooming	8	1	1	6	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guabirá win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.