· Analysis updated 08:04 UTC
Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Atlante U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas U21 and 2.08 for Atlante U21, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Atlante U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atlante U21 win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara Chivas U21 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlante U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlante U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Guadalajara Chivas U21 and 2.08 for Atlante U21, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas U21
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Queretaro U21 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club America U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 0-0 (D)
Atlante U21
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Queretaro U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey U21 · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pachuca U21 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey U21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlante U21 win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.