· Analysis updated 02:54 UTC
Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Queretaro U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas U21 and 0.72 for Queretaro U21, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas U21 win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara Chivas U21 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queretaro U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara Chivas U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Guadalajara Chivas U21 and 0.72 for Queretaro U21, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 59.8% vs market 47.8%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 59.8% | 1.67 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.6% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.4% | 25.8% | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 56.7% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.9% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.5% | 82.5% | 1.21 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas U21
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL U21 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
Queretaro U21
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul U21 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas U21 2-4 Queretaro U21 (Liga MX U21)
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas U21 1-0 Queretaro U21 (Liga MX U21)
- 2025-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas U21 0-1 Queretaro U21 (Liga MX U21)
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Puebla U21 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 6 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas U21 win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.