· Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club America Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.41 for Club America, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara Chivas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club America away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:07:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
Club America
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-2 Club America (Liga MX)
- 2026-02-15T03:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Club America (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-12T03:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Club America (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-14T03:15:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club America (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-13T02:30:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-4 Club America (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2025-03-09T03:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Club America (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-06T01:30:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Club America (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2024-10-14T21:30:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club America (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-15T00:50:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 Club America (Liga MX)
- 2024-05-19T02:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 Club America (Liga MX)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.