Estadio Akron · Referee M. Chavez · Analysis updated 08:49 UTC
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.91 for Club Tijuana, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara Chivas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Tijuana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T01:07:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 3-0 (W)
Club Tijuana
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T03:10:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T23:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 5-2 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2026-04-26T01:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2025-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 3-3 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-10T03:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2024-07-13T03:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-4 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2024-01-27T03:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2023-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2023-02-16T01:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2022-09-08T02:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2022-04-20T02:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.