Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.60 for Cruz Azul, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Cruz Azul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guadalajara Chivas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cruz Azul away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Guadalajara Chivas win34%

Draw24%

Cruz Azul win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–28.9%
2–17.9%
0–17.8%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Guadalajara Chivas

2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-21T00:07:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)

Cruz Azul

2026-10-22T03:10:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T03:10:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T01:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2026-05-14T02:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-2 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2026-02-22T03:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2025-12-01T01:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-3 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2025-11-28T02:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2025-08-31T01:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2025-03-30T03:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2024-09-22T03:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2024-03-03T01:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-3 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)
2023-11-05T03:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Cruz Azul (Liga MX)

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	14	7	5	2	9	26
3	Toluca	14	6	5	3	10	23
4	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	7	23
5	Leon	14	6	4	4	3	22
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	-2	21
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	5	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	6	2	4	1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	4	5	3	1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	-4	15
15	Atlante FC	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	3	4	6	2	13
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	-11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	1	2	11	-24	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.