Estadio Akron · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.05 for Necaxa, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara Chivas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Necaxa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara Chivas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.05 for Necaxa, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T01:07:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 3-0 (W)
Necaxa
- 2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.