Estadio Akron · Referee Fernando Hernandez, Mexico · Analysis updated 08:18 UTC
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.98 for Tigres UANL, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara Chivas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:07:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
Tigres UANL
- 2026-10-25T03:10:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2026-05-10T01:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2026-05-03T01:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-3 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2026-04-11T23:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-4 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2025-09-18T01:07:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-26T01:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2024-08-25T01:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2024-01-22T00:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-29T01:05:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 0-4 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2023-05-29T01:35:00.000Z · Guadalajara Chivas 2-3 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.