Guadalajara II vs Pedroñeras Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Guadalajara II and 1.26 for Pedroñeras, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Pedroñeras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guadalajara II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pedroñeras away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pedroñeras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Guadalajara II and 1.26 for Pedroñeras, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Guadalajara II win34%

Draw28%

Pedroñeras win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.2%
1–010.3%
0–08.9%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Guadalajara II

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 0-1 (L)

Pedroñeras

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toledo · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cazalegas · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara II 1-1 Pedroñeras (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara II 1-1 Pedroñeras (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	7	6	0	1	5	18
2	Torrijos	7	4	2	1	6	14
3	Tarancón	8	4	2	2	5	14
4	Illescas	7	4	2	1	4	14
5	Toledo	7	4	1	2	7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	3	4	0	7	13
7	Noblejas	8	4	1	3	1	13
8	CD Villa	7	4	0	3	0	12
9	Almansa	7	3	2	2	5	11
10	Villacañas	7	3	2	2	3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	3	2	2	2	11
12	San Clemente	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	1	4	3	-3	7
14	La Solana	7	2	0	5	-4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	0	2	6	-14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.