· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Guadalajara II vs Tarancón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Guadalajara II and 1.99 for Tarancón, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Tarancón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tarancón win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tarancón away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarancón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Guadalajara II and 1.99 for Tarancón, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Guadalajara II
Tarancón
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illescas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Illescas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Toledo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | CD Villa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Almansa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Tarancón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marchamalo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | San Clemente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Noblejas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Quintanar del Rey | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | La Solana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Villarrubia | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tarancón win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.