Campo de fútbol Fuente de la Niña · Analysis updated 19:05 UTC
Guadalajara II vs Villarrubia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Guadalajara II and 1.77 for Villarrubia, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Villarrubia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarrubia win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarrubia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarrubia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Guadalajara II and 1.77 for Villarrubia, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Guadalajara II
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 0-1 (L)
Villarrubia
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toledo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Balazote · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarrubia win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.