Estadio Pedro Escartín · Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Guadalajara vs Arenteiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Guadalajara and 1.05 for Arenteiro, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Guadalajara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arenteiro away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Guadalajara and 1.05 for Arenteiro, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.6%
Recent form
Guadalajara
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-1 (L)
Arenteiro
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarriana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antela · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lalin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portonovo SD · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · Guadalajara 2-0 Arenteiro (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara 0-0 Arenteiro (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.