· Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
Guadalajara vs Getafe II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Guadalajara and 1.35 for Getafe II, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Guadalajara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Guadalajara and 1.35 for Getafe II, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Guadalajara
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-1 (L)
Getafe II
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Ávila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | SS Reyes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Real Madrid III | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Calvo Sotelo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.