· Analysis updated 17:06 UTC
Guadalajara vs Navalcarnero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Guadalajara and 1.85 for Navalcarnero, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Navalcarnero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Navalcarnero away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Navalcarnero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Guadalajara and 1.85 for Navalcarnero, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Recent form
Guadalajara
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-1 (L)
Navalcarnero
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | SS Reyes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Real Madrid III | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Calvo Sotelo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.