Estadio Pedro Escartín · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Guadalajara vs Real Madrid II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Guadalajara and 1.55 for Real Madrid II, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Guadalajara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Guadalajara and 1.55 for Real Madrid II, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Guadalajara
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-1 (L)
Real Madrid II
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcorcon · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T16:30:00.000Z · Guadalajara 2-2 Real Madrid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-12-13T13:00:00.000Z · Guadalajara 1-3 Real Madrid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.