· Analysis updated 01:43 UTC
Guadalajara vs Real Valladolid II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Guadalajara and 0.96 for Real Valladolid II, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Guadalajara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guadalajara home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Guadalajara and 0.96 for Real Valladolid II, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.2% vs market 42.1%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.1% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 48.9% | 50.5% | 1.98 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 23.6% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 49.9% | 49.5% | 2.02 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.5% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.8% | 1.36 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.9% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Guadalajara
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-1 (L)
Real Valladolid II
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | CF Talavera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Salamanca UDS | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.