Guairena FC vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Guairena FC and 1.34 for Independiente F.b.c., a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Independiente F.b.c. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Independiente F.b.c. win

45.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guairena FC home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente F.b.c. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente F.b.c. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Guairena FC and 1.34 for Independiente F.b.c., a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Guairena FC win27%

Draw28%

Independiente F.b.c. win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.2%
1–112.9%
0–09.9%
1–09.7%
0–28.8%

Recent form

Guairena FC

2026-10-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Santani · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-28T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Fernando De La Mora · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T22:00:00.000Z · A vs 3 de Noviembre · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs General Caballero · 0-3 (L)

Independiente F.b.c.

2026-10-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguari AC · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacuary · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tembetary · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Benjamín Aceval · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Santani	30	19	3	8	24	60
2	General Caballero	30	17	6	7	21	57
3	12 de Junio VH	30	15	10	5	11	55
4	Paraguari AC	30	14	5	11	7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	10	15	5	7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	11	10	9	5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	12	7	11	-6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	12	6	11	4	42
9	Resistencia	29	10	9	10	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	10	7	13	-7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	-3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	30	9	7	14	-12	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	7	9	14	-8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	7	8	15	-15	29
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	-14	27
16	Encarnación	30	7	5	18	-14	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente F.b.c. win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.