Estadio Jorge Andrade · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Gualaceo SC vs Ind. Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Gualaceo SC and 0.73 for Ind. Juniors, a combined total of 1.35. That distribution gives Ind. Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gualaceo SC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ind. Juniors away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.9%
- 0–118.8%
- 1–016.2%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Gualaceo SC
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs 22 de Julio · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Santo Domingo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs LDU Portoviejo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Cumbayá · 1-0 (W)
Ind. Juniors
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Octubre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuniburo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 2-3 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2026-05-07T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 1-1 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2025-10-16T20:00:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 1-2 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2025-09-16T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 1-0 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2025-07-24T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 0-1 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2025-05-13T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 1-1 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-10-16T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 2-1 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-08-30T20:30:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 1-4 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-05-22T20:00:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 3-2 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-03-28T00:00:00.000Z · Gualaceo SC 2-3 Ind. Juniors (Liga Pro Serie B)
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.