Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Bolívar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Gualberto Villarroel SJ and 2.50 for Bolívar, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Gualberto Villarroel SJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gualberto Villarroel SJ win

49.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolívar away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gualberto Villarroel SJ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 17% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Gualberto Villarroel SJ and 2.50 for Bolívar, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gualberto Villarroel SJ win50%

Draw17%

Bolívar win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–25.7%
3–25.7%
2–34.8%
3–34.8%
2–14.6%

Recent form

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-4 (L)

Bolívar

2026-10-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Potosí · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Blooming · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Petrolero · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa de la División Profesional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente Petrolero	9	6	1	2	9	19
2	Bolívar	9	5	3	1	8	18
3	Aurora	9	5	3	1	3	18
4	Nacional Potosí	9	5	2	2	16	17
5	Real Potosí	9	5	2	2	4	17
6	Oriente Petrolero	9	5	1	3	4	16
7	The Strongest	9	4	3	2	3	15
8	Guabirá	8	4	0	4	-4	12
9	Always Ready	9	3	2	4	-8	11
10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	8	3	1	4	3	10
11	Real Tomayapo	8	3	1	4	-10	10
12	Universitario de Vinto	8	2	1	5	-4	7
13	Real Oruro	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	ABB	8	2	0	6	-4	6
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	8	2	0	6	-6	6
16	Blooming	8	1	1	6	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gualberto Villarroel SJ win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.