· Referee I. N. Mendez Chavez · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Nacional Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gualberto Villarroel SJ and 1.65 for Nacional Potosí, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Nacional Potosí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Potosí away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-4 (L)
Nacional Potosí
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2025-11-26T22:00:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3-1 Nacional Potosí (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-11-18T22:00:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0-3 Nacional Potosí (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2025-06-01T20:00:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1-0 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2024-12-09T19:00:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2024-08-17T21:30:00.000Z · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1-2 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 20 |
| 15 | ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -18 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.