· Analysis updated 10:55 UTC
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Guangdong XI and 2.00 for Hong Kong, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Guangdong XI the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guangdong XI to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Guangdong XI and 2.00 for Hong Kong, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 60% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Guangdong XI
- 2026-01-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-12-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong · 2-2 (D)
Hong Kong
- 2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Laos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mongolia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs India · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-03T08:30:00.000Z · Guangdong XI 2-2 Hong Kong (Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup)
- 2025-12-28T12:00:00.000Z · Guangdong XI 2-2 Hong Kong (Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup)
Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangdong XI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | Hong Kong | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.