· Analysis updated 19:24 UTC
Guaporé vs Luverdense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Guaporé and 1.23 for Luverdense, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Guaporé the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guaporé home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guaporé to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Guaporé and 1.23 for Luverdense, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Guaporé
- 2026-07-12T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Luverdense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Luverdense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Monte Roraima · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Monte Roraima · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Independência · 2-2 (D)
Luverdense
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.