· Referee M. Oliveira · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Guarani Campinas vs Caxias Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Guarani Campinas and 0.70 for Caxias, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Guarani Campinas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guarani Campinas win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarani Campinas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caxias away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guarani Campinas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Guarani Campinas and 0.70 for Caxias, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Guarani Campinas
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Brusque · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo PB · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Ypiranga-RS · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Anápolis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter De Limeira · 3-1 (W)
Caxias
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter De Limeira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs AO Itabaiana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 6 | Inter De Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani Campinas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 19 |
| 19 | AO Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 17 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 1 | Ferroviária | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Inter De Limeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Brusque | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 1 | Maringá | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Floresta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Botafogo PB | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guarani Campinas win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.