· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Guarani De Juazeiro vs Icasa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Guarani De Juazeiro and 1.61 for Icasa, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Icasa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Icasa win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarani De Juazeiro home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Icasa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Guarani De Juazeiro
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbalha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crato · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariri · 1-0 (W)
Icasa
- 2026-06-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itapipoca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Crateús · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani De Juazeiro · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · Guarani De Juazeiro 1-2 Icasa (Cearense - 2)
- 2026-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Guarani De Juazeiro 1-5 Icasa (Cearense - 2)
- 2025-03-23T20:00:00.000Z · Guarani De Juazeiro 2-1 Icasa (Cearense - 2)
- 2025-02-27T22:00:00.000Z · Guarani De Juazeiro 0-0 Icasa (Cearense - 2)
- 2024-02-18T19:00:00.000Z · Guarani De Juazeiro 0-1 Icasa (Cearense - 2)
- 2020-10-31T18:30:00.000Z · Guarani De Juazeiro 1-3 Icasa (Cearense - 2)
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Icasa win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.