· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Guarani de Palhoça vs Hercílio Luz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Guarani de Palhoça and 1.71 for Hercílio Luz, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Hercílio Luz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hercílio Luz win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarani de Palhoça home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hercílio Luz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hercílio Luz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 17% / 24% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Guarani de Palhoça and 1.71 for Hercílio Luz, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Guarani de Palhoça
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubarao · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraguá · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense-SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus SC · 0-1 (L)
Hercílio Luz
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Caravaggio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubarao · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Catarinense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hercílio Luz win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.