· Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Guarani U20 vs Sfera U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Guarani U20 and 0.84 for Sfera U20, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Guarani U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guarani U20 win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarani U20 home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guarani U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Guarani U20 and 0.84 for Sfera U20, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–08.5%
Recent form
Guarani U20
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfera U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União Suzano U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs XV de Jaú U20 · 3-0 (W)
Sfera U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guarani U20 win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.