· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Guarani U20 vs União Suzano U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Guarani U20 and 0.86 for União Suzano U20, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Guarani U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guarani U20 win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarani U20 home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guarani U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Guarani U20 and 0.86 for União Suzano U20, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Guarani U20
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfera U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União Suzano U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs XV de Jaú U20 · 3-0 (W)
União Suzano U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guarani U20 win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.