· Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Guarany de Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Guarany de Bagé and 1.48 for Brasil DE Pelotas, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Brasil DE Pelotas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brasil DE Pelotas win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarany de Bagé home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brasil DE Pelotas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Guarany de Bagé and 1.48 for Brasil DE Pelotas, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–210.3%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
Guarany de Bagé
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bagé · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cianorte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farroupilha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Joinville · 0-2 (L)
Brasil DE Pelotas
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Gaúcha table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil DE Pelotas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Gramadense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RS | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Bagé | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Brasil Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brasil DE Pelotas win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.