Guarany de Sobral vs América PE Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Guarany de Sobral and 1.56 for América PE, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives América PE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guarany de Sobral home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
América PE away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates América PE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Guarany de Sobral and 1.56 for América PE, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guarany de Sobral win32%

Draw25%

América PE win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–29.1%
0–18.9%
2–17.5%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Guarany de Sobral

2026-05-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crato · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 1-0 (W)

América PE

2025-11-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acadêmica Vitória · 1-1 (D)
2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Caruaru City · 2-1 (W)
2025-10-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ipojuca · 4-2 (W)
2025-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Centro Limoeirense · 5-0 (W)
2025-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belo Jardim · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pernambucano - 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salgueiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ypiranga PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atlético PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	América PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Petrolina	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Centro Limoeirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vera Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Ferroviario do Cabo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belo Jardim	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Jaguaré	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Íbis	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Afogados	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pesqueira	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Aguia FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sete de Setembro	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1º de Maio	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Cha Grande	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Serrano PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Ipojuca	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Facilnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Central SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Santa Fe PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Guarany de Sobral	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.