· Analysis updated 09:07 UTC
Guarany de Sobral vs Crateús Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Guarany de Sobral and 1.04 for Crateús, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Crateús the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarany de Sobral home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crateús away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crateús to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Guarany de Sobral and 1.04 for Crateús, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Guarany de Sobral
- 2026-05-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crato · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 1-0 (W)
Crateús
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Icasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cariri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Sobral · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.