Guarany de Sobral vs Sete de Setembro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Guarany de Sobral and 1.60 for Sete de Setembro, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sete de Setembro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sete de Setembro win

45.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guarany de Sobral home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sete de Setembro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sete de Setembro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Guarany de Sobral and 1.60 for Sete de Setembro, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guarany de Sobral win30%

Draw25%

Sete de Setembro win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–29.3%
0–19.2%
0–27.4%
2–17.2%

Recent form

Guarany de Sobral

2026-05-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crato · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 1-0 (W)

Sete de Setembro

2026-05-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Zumbi · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zumbi · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Miguelense · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Miguelense · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Domingos AL · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Pernambucano - 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salgueiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ypiranga PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atlético PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	América PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Petrolina	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Centro Limoeirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vera Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Ferroviario do Cabo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belo Jardim	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Jaguaré	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Íbis	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Afogados	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pesqueira	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Aguia FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sete de Setembro	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1º de Maio	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Cha Grande	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Serrano PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Ipojuca	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Facilnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Central SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Santa Fe PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Guarany de Sobral	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sete de Setembro win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.