· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Guatemala vs Canada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Guatemala and 1.60 for Canada, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Canada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Canada win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Guatemala and 1.60 for Canada, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 47% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Guatemala
- 2026-06-07T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Ecuador · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Czechia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-27T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Algeria · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-01-18T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Suriname · 3-1 (W)
Canada
- 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Morocco · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Barbados | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 |
| 7 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | St. Lucia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Aruba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | French Guyana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | US Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Guatemala | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Jamaica | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 19 | Suriname | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Honduras | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Martinique | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | Guadeloupe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | El Salvador | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 26 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Belize | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Grenada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 31 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 33 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 37 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canada win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.