Stadio Pietro Barbetti · Referee A. Palmieri · Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Gubbio vs Atalanta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gubbio and 1.40 for Atalanta II, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Gubbio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gubbio home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atalanta II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gubbio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Gubbio and 1.40 for Atalanta II, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Gubbio
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pescara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Latina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Campobasso FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 5-0 (W)
Atalanta II
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ravenna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Livorno | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | Campobasso FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pescara | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Latina | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.