· Analysis updated 18:01 UTC
Gudja United vs Fgura United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.56 expected goals for Gudja United and 1.80 for Fgura United, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Fgura United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fgura United win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.56 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gudja United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fgura United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fgura United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 11% / 22% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.56 goals for Gudja United and 1.80 for Fgura United, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.0%
- 0–215.3%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–09.4%
- 0–39.2%
Recent form
Gudja United
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zurrieq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Andrews · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Melita · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vittoriosa Stars · 3-2 (W)
Fgura United
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Lucía · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hotspurs · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirens · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Zebbug Rangers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Swieqi United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Zurrieq | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fgura United win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.