· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Guerreros del Pacifico and 1.70 for FC Santiago, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives FC Santiago the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Santiago win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guerreros del Pacifico home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Santiago away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Santiago to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Guerreros del Pacifico and 1.70 for FC Santiago, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Guerreros del Pacifico
- 2026-10-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Apodaca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-21T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Calor de San Pedro · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-13T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 0-0 (D)
FC Santiago
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Apodaca · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs La Tribu de Cd. Juarez · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Saltillo · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Santiago win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.