· Analysis updated 04:44 UTC
Guerreros vs Halcones Negros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Guerreros and 2.10 for Halcones Negros, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Halcones Negros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guerreros home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Halcones Negros away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Halcones Negros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 36% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Guerreros and 2.10 for Halcones Negros, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.7%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Guerreros
- 2026-10-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Fresnillo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santiago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Correcaminos UAT II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Apodaca · 0-2 (L)
Halcones Negros
- 2026-10-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Guerreros · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Acambaro · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ciervos · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Calor de San Pedro · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-25T22:00:00.000Z · Guerreros 2-1 Halcones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A)
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.