· Analysis updated 03:01 UTC
Guerreros vs Vaqueros Reynosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Guerreros and 1.55 for Vaqueros Reynosa, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Guerreros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guerreros home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guerreros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Guerreros and 1.55 for Vaqueros Reynosa, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Guerreros
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santiago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Correcaminos UAT II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Apodaca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs La Tribu de Cd. Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaqueros Reynosa · 3-4 (L)
Vaqueros Reynosa
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Correcaminos UAT II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Saltillo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Apodaca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Fresnillo · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.