Stadio Citta dell Aria · Referee D. Gandino · Analysis updated 01:22 UTC
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Livorno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and 1.12 for Livorno, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Livorno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.5% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Livorno away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Livorno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 29% / 31% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and 1.12 for Livorno, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–28.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.73 (model 60.6% vs market 53.0%, edge +7.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.73 | 53.0% | 60.6% | 1.65 | +7.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 69.5% | 1.44 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 28.4% | 28.5% | 3.51 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.15 | 41.0% | 41.0% | 2.44 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 30.6% | 30.5% | 3.28 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 71.5% | 1.40 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | 59.0% | 1.69 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.0% | 39.4% | 2.54 | -7.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Torres · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pescara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Pineto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 1-2 (L)
Livorno
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spezia · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1-1 Livorno (Serie C - Girone B)
- 2026-01-17T16:30:00.000Z · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0-2 Livorno (Serie C - Girone B)
- 2025-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1-0 Livorno (Serie C - Girone B)
- 2024-12-18T13:30:00.000Z · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3-2 Livorno (Coppa Italia Serie D)
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Pescara | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Torres | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Livorno | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Perugia | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Vado | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Campobasso FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Latina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Pineto | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Forli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Ostia Mare | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Pianese | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 19 | Gubbio | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 7 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.