Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Pineto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and 0.93 for Pineto, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Guidonia Montecelio 1937 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and 0.93 for Pineto, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win49%

Draw27%

Pineto win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–112.5%
2–09.8%
0–09.3%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Latina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 1-0 (W)

Pineto

2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Grosseto · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Campobasso FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Perugia · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spezia	10	9	1	0	14	28
2	Ravenna	10	6	2	2	10	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	8	19
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	2	18
5	Reggiana	10	5	2	3	5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	4	16
7	Livorno	10	4	4	2	1	16
8	Perugia	11	5	1	5	-2	16
9	Vado	11	4	3	4	1	15
10	Torres	10	4	3	3	-1	15
11	Pineto	11	3	5	3	-2	14
12	Latina	10	3	4	3	0	13
13	Atalanta II	9	4	0	5	-3	12
14	Campobasso FC	10	3	3	4	-5	12
15	Forli	10	2	5	3	0	11
16	Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	-4	9
17	Pianese	10	1	5	4	-4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	1	4	5	-3	7
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	-11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	1	1	7	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.