Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Guijuelo vs Atlético Tordesillas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Guijuelo and 1.30 for Atlético Tordesillas, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Guijuelo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guijuelo home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Tordesillas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guijuelo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Guijuelo and 1.30 for Atlético Tordesillas, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Guijuelo
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Turégano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Calasanz de Soria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas II · 1-4 (L)
Atlético Tordesillas
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.