Guimaraes B vs Mafra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Guimaraes B and 1.17 for Mafra, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Guimaraes B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guimaraes B home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mafra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guimaraes B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Guimaraes B and 1.17 for Mafra, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guimaraes B win42%

Draw26%

Mafra win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.7%
0–18.9%
2–18.8%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Guimaraes B

2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Marco 09 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-21T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fafe · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-3 (L)

Mafra

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · Guimaraes B 0-2 Mafra (Liga 3)
2026-03-08T11:00:00.000Z · Guimaraes B 2-1 Mafra (Liga 3)
2019-01-28T15:00:00.000Z · Guimaraes B 1-2 Mafra (Segunda Liga)
2018-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · Guimaraes B 0-2 Mafra (Segunda Liga)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.