Academia Vitoria SC · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Guimaraes B vs Paredes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Guimaraes B and 1.29 for Paredes, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Paredes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guimaraes B home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paredes away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paredes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 29% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Guimaraes B and 1.29 for Paredes, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Guimaraes B
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Marco 09 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fafe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-3 (L)
Paredes
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maria da Fonte · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermesinde · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.