Stade 28 Septembre · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Guinea vs Kenya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Guinea and 0.51 for Kenya, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Guinea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guinea win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.51
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guinea home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kenya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guinea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 28% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Guinea and 0.51 for Kenya, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.8%
- 0–015.0%
- 2–014.4%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.44 (model 70.0% vs market 63.5%, edge +6.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.44 | 63.5% | 70.0% | 1.43 | +6.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 58.3% | 58.8% | 1.70 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.0% | 86.4% | 1.16 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 41.2% | 41.2% | 2.43 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.8% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 13.9% | 13.6% | 7.35 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.8% | 72.4% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.50 | 36.5% | 30.0% | 3.33 | -6.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Guinea
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern Ireland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Togo · 2-2 (D)
Kenya
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guinea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eritrea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lesotho · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Gabon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Niger | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Egypt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Angola | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | South Sudan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Gambia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Somalia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Ghana | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Eritrea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 4 | Kenya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Congo DR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Zimbabwe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Equatorial Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Sierra Leone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Benin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central African Republic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Comoros | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Namibia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Uganda | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Botswana | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Libya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Algeria | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Zambia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Togo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burundi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Mozambique | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Liberia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Guinea-Bissau | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guinea win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.