· Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Guinea vs Liberia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Guinea and 1.03 for Liberia, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Guinea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guinea win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guinea home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Liberia away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guinea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Guinea and 1.03 for Liberia, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Guinea
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern Ireland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Togo · 2-2 (D)
Liberia
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rwanda · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sierra Leone · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sierra Leone · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Libya · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guinea win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.